An article in the New York Times describes a new study that used complex models to imagine what the health landscape of American children would look like if children exercised every day. The study found that the United States could save more than $120 billion a year in healthcare costs alone if all children exercised every day.
Researchers at the Global Obesity Prevention Center at Johns Hopkins University used computerized models that created avatars for each of the 31.7 million children in the United States currently between eight to 11-years-old. In keeping with real-life statistics, they programmed two thirds of these children to rarely exercise. The researchers then modeled each child’s calorie intake and “virtual body change” day by day, year by year, and tracked these simulated childhoods into adulthood. After these avatars reached adulthood, their health was modeled based on the predictive risk for heart disease, stroke, high blood pressure, etc.
The results were sobering. The models predicted that if eight to 11-year-olds were as inactive as predicted almost $3 trillion in medical expenses would be spent on this population. Furthermore, they would have lost productivity each year once they reach adulthood.
Even if this estimate is not perfectly precise, it is undeniable that the social price tag of physical inactivity is significant - inactive kids will grow to be sedentary adults whose health problems are not only expensive to treat but also cost the economy in lost wages and productivity. Childhood obesity and Type 2 diabetes are only some of the many risks associated with a lack of exercise.
The same researchers also looked at the counterfactual and model of how society would benefit if these children did exercise regularly. If half of the children in the U.S. were able to receive at least half an hour of exercise three times a week (the recommendation by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), childhood obesity would fall and the societal costs of obesity-related disease would drop by $32 billion.
The numbers are undeniably compelling. The societal burden of disease stemming from lack of exercise would impact us all, regardless of how healthy we imagine ourselves to be. Today’s adolescents live with an unprecedented amount of distractions that might make physical activity seem less appealing, but getting proper exercise is not only a short-term benefit but also a long-term investment.